Following Ottawa's allegation that Indian agents might have been involved in the death of a Khalistani terrorist, ties between India and Canada have become tense.
Delhi, New: Though New Delhi surprised everyone by easing some of the restrictions on Canadian visas, officials and experts predict that repairing the damaged diplomatic relations between India and Canada will take time, as both countries have taken maximalist stances. After suspending visa services for several weeks due to Ottawa's accusation that Indian agents might have been involved in the murder of a Khalistani terrorist from Punjab, India has now decided to partially resume the services.
The two nations' ties, which have been close for nearly a century and have strong ties through the Sikh community, have reached an all-time low due to mutual recriminations following that accusation, which India vehemently denies.
Furthermore, although some had hoped for better relations after India relaxed its visa requirements, officials and experts in both nations said that there is no reason for either side to rush the return to normalcy.
As Canada's murder investigation continues and Prime Minister Narendra Modi gets ready for the May national elections in India, it doesn't appear that either New Delhi or Ottawa will make any significant moves towards reconciliation anytime soon.
According to Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre in Washington, "the relationship is in deep crisis, perhaps its worst ever." "Each side may have a strong interest in the crisis not getting completely out of control, but that doesn't mean there are strong incentives to resolve the crisis."
India's ambassador to Canada from 2020 to 2022, Ajay Bisaria, stated that after "quiet diplomacy," the relationship is in a "de-escalation phase."
The movement of tens of thousands of Indians and people of Indian origin who live in Canada or intend to study there is anticipated to be impeded by the visa restrictions, even with the reprieve.
The enmity has threatened Group of Seven member Canada's Indo-Pacific plans, where New Delhi is essential to efforts to check an increasingly assertive China, even though both governments have spared business and trade links.
'DIFFICULT MOMENT'
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on September 18 that Canada was "actively pursuing credible allegations" that connected Indian government agents to the June murder of 45-year-old Hardeep Singh Nijjar in a Vancouver suburb. Nijjar had supported the fringe idea of carving out an independent Sikh homeland called Khalistan from India.
India's head of intelligence was expelled by Canada in Ottawa. India swiftly retaliated, banning 13 types of Canadian visas and ending Canada's diplomatic mission there, which Ottawa claimed went against the Vienna Conventions.
Then, on October 25, New Delhi announced that it would start issuing visas again under four categories. According to Indian officials, this move will facilitate travel to India for individuals of Indian descent during the upcoming wedding season, which starts this month.
"This is not a thaw," a representative of the Indian foreign ministry told Reuters. "People can read whatever they want into it."
According to another official, Ottawa started the crisis and needs to start resigning from its position.
The ultimate objective of Ottawa, according to a senior Canadian government source, was to get things back to normal, but uncertainty over the murder investigation and trial in the upcoming months, along with India's elections, could cause problems.
"This is a difficult moment, but Canada is not abandoning its Indo-Pacific strategy," a source said.
'MODEST DE-ESCALATION'
Speaking under oath, officials from Canada and India disclosed information about which they were not authorised to discuss.
A request for comment was not answered by the Indian foreign ministry. The remarks made by Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie on October 30 were cited by Canada's foreign ministry.
Jolie continued to speak with her Indian counterpart. "We have a long-term approach when it comes to India because this is a relationship that has spanned decades and we all know that we have very strong people-to-people ties with the country," she said.
The largest Sikh population outside of Punjab is found in Canada, where 770,000 people identified as Sikhs in the census taken in 2021. With 40% of study permit holders coming from India, the country is by far the biggest source of international students in Canada. India is also a major economic contributor to the country, bringing in over C$20 billion ($15 billion) a year to the country's education sector.
Since the 1980s, tensions regarding Sikh separatism between India and Canada have plagued the relationship. With his strongman persona and leadership of a Hindu nationalist party, PM Modi is not likely to be seen to back down, especially not too long before the elections.
The majority of the retaliatory measures are still in place, according to Kugelman, "and there's still a lot of anger on both sides," despite the "modest de-escalation" over visas. Thus, we shouldn't exaggerate this situation's de-escalating potential.
Expert in foreign policy at the Atlantic Council Michael Bociurkiw stated that "a pause" was necessary "for cooler heads to prevail and to get the relationship back on track".
However, it won't happen right away. It'll need some time.